Extreme weather has large effects on human and natural systems. Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution estimates how and how much anthropogenic climate change has affected recent individual extreme events through the use of observations, climate model and statistical techniques.
Increased understanding of the influence of global warming on current extreme weather increases confidence in projections of changes in future extreme weather statistics The centerpiece modeling effort of the CASCADE Detection and Attribution (D&A) team is the C20C+ (Climate of the 20th Century) experiment. CASCADE team member Dáithí Stone is the principal investigator of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) coordinated international project. This multi-model effort aims to aid event attribution by building a database of ensemble climate model simulations describing the “world that was” in a realistic as possible configuration and the “world that might have been” in a counterfactual configuration where the influence of humans has been removed.