Extremes are by definition rare. Statistical methods are critical for characterizing extreme weather in time and space, estimating changes in extreme weather, and quantifying our uncertainty about the frequency and trends in extremes.
The Statistics team is developing, implementing and advising on statistical methods for characterizing extremes in observations and model output. We are particularly focused on detection and designation of changes in extreme events, quantifying the evidence that the probability of extreme events are changing over time and that changes are caused by environmental drivers. As part of this work we are addressing the question of uncertainty characterization. A key focus is to identify the leading sources of uncertainty in our understanding of weather extremes (e.g., initial condition uncertainty/sampling uncertainty, forcing uncertainty, model parameter uncertainty).