The CASCADE D&A team is fully committed to using the highest resolution climate models possible on the machines at DOE’s National Energy Research Supercomputing Center. We have demonstrated that high resolution (of the order 25km) is a necessary but not sufficient condition to reproduce the distribution of extreme daily averaged precipitation. Working closely with […]
In the CASCADE project, we are focused on understanding extreme climate events–strange weather–and we use climate models to do this. These extreme climate events are fundamentally weather events, and so our climate models must be able to do a good job of simulating weather. We are running an early version of the Accelerated Climate Model […]
CASCADE research teams require sophisticated pattern detection and statistical analysis capabilities Detection of extremes is a pre-requisite for most proposed methodologies UQ and D&A teams rely on GEV and spatial extreme analysis for characterization Statistical methodologies are a cross-cutting theme throughout the SFA CASCADE science teams require automated “Big Data” analytics ILIAD 10,000 member ensembles will […]
Observed twenty year return values of seasonal maximum daily precipitation. Units: Inches/day. Understanding the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation is a critical part of CASCADE objectives. In the US, the meteorology of extreme storms varies greatly across seasons. The stats and software teams have developed R and Python based tools enabling robust descriptions of […]
TECA uses the Map-Reduce paradigm for scaling climate analytics tools on platforms such as Hopper and Mira. See Scalable Algorithms under Resources for more information.
The figure shows an Australian heat wave as an example use of the C20C+ model output by the CASCADE Detection and Attribution team. We first apply a number of tests to ensure that the model and observational data are “fit for purpose” for attribution purposes (middle panel). The right panel shows the distribution of each […]
CASCADE team members Chris Paciorek and Michael Wehner prepared this figure describing changes in extreme temperature and precipitation for review articles in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society as source material for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. The figure set shows change over 1950-2007 in estimated 20-year return value (oC) for (a) upper […]
CASCADE team members Chris Paciorek and Michael Wehner prepared this figure describing changes in extreme temperature and precipitation for review articles in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society as source material for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. The figure shows changes in observed twenty year return value of the daily accumulated precipitation from […]
The figure shows an average number of tropical storms, tropical cyclones and intense tropical cyclones per year simulated by the 0.23ox0.31o version of CAM5.1 for the four US CLIVAR HWG idealized AGCM configurations. Both increased atmospheric CO2 and elevated sea surface temperature reduce the total number of tropical cyclones. Error bars represent 5%-95% confidence intervals […]
CASCADE Software Suite The Computation and Predictions team is building upon pattern detection and statistical tools using the following approaches: Exploit parallelism across time, spatial locations and ensemble members TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) exploits parallelism across time and ensembles Parallel GEV tools exploit parallelism across spatial locations Develop highly scalable code (computation, parallel […]